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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."